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-   -   Uh-oh... (http://securityarms.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2356)

PT-The Italian Commie 11-23-2010 03:24 AM

Uh-oh...
 
Looks like s**t is hitting the fan down in KOR...

Kim-Jong Il headed for a massive butt-spanking? :Feu07:

Kthulhu 11-24-2010 04:10 PM

Re: Uh-oh...
 
Probably not, actually. South Korea has developed so far past the north that a full intensity conflict over this would be more of a loss for them than just taking a few casualties and sighing at the inanity of it all. Not that South Korea wants it to happen or is happy about it, but when the other option is breaking down the advanced society that you spent the last 20, 25 years building, the death of a few South Korean citizens (especially in the context of the Korean War never really ending) is the cost that is paid.

The little elite that runs North Korea and the military probably also know that a war would also not go in their favor, but because their society and economy is mostly a basket case, they have to do little things like this to try and press for concessions or economic assistance.

For now, it's probably the only reasonable situation both sides have - the humanitarian, military, and economic costs would be too great, otherwise. Of course, once Kim Jong-il is gone and Kim Jong-nam takes over, all bets are probably off. Sure hope that dude has some tricks and connections up his sleeve, because I can see him being eaten alive.

PT-The Italian Commie 11-25-2010 02:20 AM

Re: Uh-oh...
 
Successor to Kim Jong-Il will be Kim Jong-Un, not Kim Jong-Nam, who's currently living a rich playboy life in PRC.

D Yankee (The Zionist) 11-25-2010 06:28 AM

Re: Uh-oh...
 
If it escalates (which I'm sure it will, The North Korean leadership is fucking retarded) the south will bomb them into the stone age with their air power, and forget about it. This day has been coimg for a long time. I'm hoping this will finally be the end of a very obsolete regime that has been begging for someone to delete it.



Quote:

Originally Posted by Kthulhu
Probably not, actually. South Korea has developed so far past the north that a full intensity conflict over this would be more of a loss for them than just taking a few casualties and sighing at the inanity of it all. Not that South Korea wants it to happen or is happy about it, but when the other option is breaking down the advanced society that you spent the last 20, 25 years building, the death of a few South Korean citizens (especially in the context of the Korean War never really ending) is the cost that is paid.

The little elite that runs North Korea and the military probably also know that a war would also not go in their favor, but because their society and economy is mostly a basket case, they have to do little things like this to try and press for concessions or economic assistance.

For now, it's probably the only reasonable situation both sides have - the humanitarian, military, and economic costs would be too great, otherwise. Of course, once Kim Jong-il is gone and Kim Jong-nam takes over, all bets are probably off. Sure hope that dude has some tricks and connections up his sleeve, because I can see him being eaten alive.


PT-The Italian Commie 11-25-2010 11:52 AM

Hmmm...
 
Analists here in Italy state that this is probably a byzantine move to bolster Kim Jong-Un's leadership figure with the North Korean public opinion AND Armed Forces, mostly within the most conservative members of the establishment. An escalation of the conflict would have lots of cons for North Korea, and not solely its total destruction. The very same day, the government of the People's Republic of China, although being the only one in the world not to officially condemn the bombing, has issued a note stating that the loss of life was "deeply saddening", and that had to be seen as a "further reason to restart dialogues for peace in the Korean peninsula". The message is sybilline and cryptic, but it is also fairly clear to those who understand how China moves diplomatically, and is entirely aimed at North Korea: "Stop screwing around, we are your only true ally in the world with the exception of Iran, and we make billions of dollars yearly trading with South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and the United States. We actually gain from trading with them in one single year more than you could pay for armaments procurement from us in a decade. We will not let you ruin everything. Step out of the path, and you are on your own."

D Yankee (The Zionist) 11-25-2010 08:03 PM

Re: Uh-oh...
 
Oh they will find themselves on their own very soon. Except with the exception of maybe Iran. But with Iran as an allie, does that really count for anything?

PT-The Italian Commie 11-26-2010 04:19 AM

Re: Uh-oh...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by D Yankee (The Zionist)
Oh they will find themselves on their own very soon. Except with the exception of maybe Iran. But with Iran as an allie, does that really count for anything?


No, it doesn't. There are exchanges in technology, mostly military-aimed, between the two countries. But without Chinese intermediation... :icon13:

D Yankee (The Zionist) 11-26-2010 08:57 AM

Re: Uh-oh...
 
North Korea would be very stupid to alienate themselves from China. China is their LIFELINE to the sane, logical, technologically advanced world. North Korea and Iran are one in the same. Two very secluded, alienated countrys with leaders who are utterly hated by their citizenry. When will this all end?

Kthulhu 11-26-2010 06:46 PM

Re: Uh-oh...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by PT-The Italian Commie
Successor to Kim Jong-Il will be Kim Jong-Un, not Kim Jong-Nam, who's currently living a rich playboy life in PRC.


Yeah, I realized that a bit late :p . Too bad it's not Jong-nam - considering how lackadaisical he is, he might be a likely contender to try and open the country up. "Forget all this Juche crap and military-first nonsense, I want a goddamn Pyongyang Disneyland!".

Or, conversely, he'd make things fall apart through ineptitude and create a mess of epic proportions.

Quote:

Originally Posted by D Yankee (The Zionist)
If it escalates (which I'm sure it will, The North Korean leadership is fucking retarded) the south will bomb them into the stone age with their air power, and forget about it. This day has been coimg for a long time. I'm hoping this will finally be the end of a very obsolete regime that has been begging for someone to delete it.


Much as I'd like to agree, there have been multiple incidents like this between the North and South, and it still hasn't led to all out war. Bombings, special forces incursions, naval engagements, and so forth.

Again, in the South Korean context (and the context of this region of East Asia), flare ups like this are accepted. There's too much to lose for all involved. For China, the collapse of North Korea would be a humanitarian mess, a military mess, and it goes against their military and political goals (that is, having a buffer from the US, and also having the North to use against the South).

For the South, reunification is idealistically desired, but the economic and social costs of it would probably be tremendous - what would the south do with a population and land that is decades behind in technology, skills, education, and infrastructure, consisting of people who have been mentally, physically, and culturally shaped by decades of totalitarian government? And that's assuming a peaceful reunification occurs - one brought about through war is going to just be a nightmare for all concerned.

Japan probably wouldn't mind a reunified Korea, but they are within missile range of North Korea, and they would also probably be drug into any sort of humanitarian mess that would occur in the event of war.

And the US - well, much as we'd probably like to liberate North Korea (Yes? No?), our military is stretched thin, and we'd have to factor in not only the loss of our troops, but those of South Korea, plus the civilian casualties, plus the economic devastation it would bring, plus China's involvement, plus the regional instability it would cause...it'd be a mess, one that we don't want to voluntarily step into.

At some point, certainly, there has to be a resolution to the situation. But maintaining things as-is and waiting for a change in the winds to appear seems to be the safer course (for everyone, including the North Koreans), rather than a war that will ruin everything and kill a hell of a lot of people.

PT-The Italian Commie 11-27-2010 06:08 AM

The reason why will probably NOT be a conflict...
 
...is exactly the involvement of China.

PRC is a nuclear power; they have about 300 nukes and a "defense-only" use policy. They will not like a potential nuclear conflict close to their borders.
On the other hand, even in case of an overt conflict in the Korean peninsula, I doubt that the US will be the first to use nukes. North Koreans are fool enough to try to use their low-yield nukes (they are estimated to have about 12), but they do not have the delivery capabilities to nuke US soil. They might try to use them on invading ground forces, or against civilian targets in South Korea and Japan, but in that case, the US would retaliate with nukes, and China would remain out of the game.

The reason is simple: China has way too much to loose economically from direct involvement in a conflict between South Korea/USA and North Korea. PRC makes more $$$ yearly by trading with Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, the US, and the so-called "western world" in general than it would make in a decade of sales of armaments and basic commodities in exchange with precious and rare minerals (pretty abundant in DPRK soil) to North Korea. They will not let Kim Jong-Whoever to spoil everything. There is simply too much money to loose. And China might be communist as it concerns the form of government, but they are probably the most capitalist country in the world as far as it concerns the market economy... ;)

And, guess what happened today? DPRK has (in its own very peculiar form, obvuiously) "apologized" for the loss of "civilian lives". Is it a case that the DPRK ambassador in Beijing has been "summoned for talks" by the Chinese government yesterday? No. They are being forced by China to de-escalate. There will be no conflict, not now. Too many economic interests are at stake in the region. The 2010s are not the 1950s.


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