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Old 09-26-2007
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Default Silence In Syria, Panic In Iran

Silence In Syria, Panic In Iran
To The Point News ^ | 19 September, 2007 | Dr. Jack Wheeler

One of India's top ranking generals assigned to liaise with the Iranian military recently returned to New Delhi from several days in Tehran - in a state of complete amazement.

"Everyone in the government and military can only talk of one thing," he reports. "No matter who I talked to, all they could do was ask me, over and over again, ‘Do you think the Americans will attack us?' ‘When will the Americans attack us?' ‘Will the Americans attack us in a joint operation with the Israelis?' How massive will the attack be?' on and on, endlessly. The Iranians are in a state of total panic."

And that was before September 6. Since then, it's panic-squared in Tehran. The mullahs are freaking out in fear. Why? Because of the silence in Syria.

On September 6, Israeli Air Force F-15 and F-16s conducted a devastating attack on targets deep inside Syria near the city of Dayr az-Zawr. Israel's military censors have muzzled the Israeli media, enforcing an extraordinary silence about the identity of the targets. Massive speculation in the world press has followed, such as Brett Stephens' Osirak II? in yesterday's (9/18) Wall St. Journal.

Stephens and most everyone else have missed the real story. It is not Israel's silence that "speaks volumes" as he claims, but Syria's. Why would the Syrian government be so tight-lipped about an act of war perpetrated on their soil?

The first half of the answer lies in this story that appeared in the Israeli media last month (8/13): Syria's Antiaircraft System Most Advanced In World. Syria has gone on a profligate buying spree, spending vast sums on Russian systems, "considered the cutting edge in aircraft interception technology."

Syria now "possesses the most crowded antiaircraft system in the world," with "more than 200 antiaircraft batteries of different types," some of which are so new that they have been installed in Syria "before being introduced into Russian operation service."

While you're digesting that, take a look at the map of Syria:

syria_map

Notice how far away Dayr az-Zawr is from Israel. An F15/16 attack there is not a tiptoe across the border, but a deep, deep penetration of Syrian airspace. And guess what happened with the Russian super-hyper-sophisticated cutting edge antiaircraft missile batteries when that penetration took place on September 6th.

Nothing.

El blanko. Silence. The systems didn't even light up, gave no indication whatever of any detection of enemy aircraft invading Syrian airspace, zip, zero, nada. The Israelis (with a little techie assistance from us) blinded the Russkie antiaircraft systems so completely the Syrians didn't even know they were blinded.

Now you see why the Syrians have been scared speechless. They thought they were protected - at enormous expense - only to discover they are defenseless. As in naked.

Thus the Great Iranian Freak-Out - for this means Iran is just as nakedly defenseless as Syria. I can tell you that there are a lot of folks in the Kirya (IDF headquarters in Tel Aviv) and the Pentagon right now who are really enjoying the mullahs' predicament. Let's face it: scaring the terror masters in Tehran out of their wits is fun.

It's so much fun, in fact, that an attack destroying Iran's nuclear facilities and the Revolutionary Guard command/control centers has been delayed, so that France (under new management) can get in on the fun too.

On Sunday (9/16), Sarkozy's foreign minister Bernard Kouchner announced that "France should prepare for the possibility of war over Iran's nuclear program."

All of this has caused Tehran to respond with maniacal threats. On Monday (9/17), a government website proclaimed that "600 Shihab-3 missiles" will be fired at targets in Israel in response to an attack upon Iran by the US/Israel. This was followed by Iranian deputy air force chief Gen. Mohammad Alavi announcing today (9/19) that "we will attack their (Israeli) territory with our fighter bombers as a response to any attack."

A sure sign of panic is to make a threat that everyone knows is a bluff. So our and Tel Aviv's response to Iranian bluster is a thank-you-for-sharing yawn and a laugh. Few things rattle the mullahs' cages more than a yawn and a laugh.

Yet no matter how much fun this sport with the mullahs is, it is also deadly serious. The pressure build-up on Iran is getting enormous. Something is going to blow and soon. The hope is that the blow-up will be internal, that the regime will implode from within.

But make no mistake: an all-out full regime take-out air assault upon Iran is coming if that hope doesn't materialize within the next 60 to 90 days. The Sept. 6 attack on Syria was the shot across Iran's bow.

So - what was attacked near Dayr az-Zawr? It's possible it was North Korean "nuclear material" recently shipped to Syria, i.e., stuff to make radioactively "dirty" warheads, but nothing to make a real nuke with as the Norks don't have real nukes (see Why North Korea's Nuke Test Is Such Good News, October 2006).

Another possibility is it was to take out a stockpile of long-range Zilzal surface-to-surface missiles recently shipped from Iran for an attack on Israel.

A third is it was a hit on the stockpile of Saddam's chemical/bio weapons snuck out of Iraq and into Syria for safekeeping before the US invasion of April 2003.

But the identity of the target is not the story - for the primary point of the attack was not to destroy that target. It was to shut down Syria's Russian air defense system during the attack. Doing so made the attack an incredible success.

Syria is shamed and silent. Iran is freaking out in panic. Defenseless enemies are fun.

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Old 09-26-2007
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Default Re: Silence In Syria, Panic In Iran

Baaaaawaaaaaaaaaahahahaha and a good Harrrdy harrr harr.


I've been talking about that raid since just days after it happened. The first sign that the Syrian command and control structure had that anything happened was when they spotted the IDF attack group at the border on its return leg...

Let that sink in: The first sign they had that the attack had happened was when their radars picked the jets up as they were going home, already on the Israeli side of the border...

They hadn't even heard as much as a peep about the frickin' explosions inside their own borders wiping out several targets... The IDF wiped the targets out so quickly, completely and cleanly that no one in the target area even had the time to radio "Oh Shit!" to anyone.

Think about that.



The Israelis didn't just hit one target, either. A North Korean weapons deal was the main target (several North Korean advisors and arms dealers were killed in this raid, by the way), but some other "while we're at it, we might as well" targets were hit after that... with the ordnances the handful of IDF jets didn't need to use use to completely fucking wipe out a well organized weapons transfer operation.

So there's one more reason the Syrians have been quiet, other than being scared to the point of pissing themselves...

They're not even sure just what all happened yet.

From what I hear they've spend the last few weeks "counting their fingers and toes" to make sure they haven't overlooked anything else the Israelis blew up while they were at it.

Can I get a "Hell yeah"?




As for Iran... Iran is a much biggest beast than the Syrians, but the United States is also a much bigger meat grinder than Israel.

If we decide to start a full scale air war against them, watch for 80% of key Air Assets, Air Defence, Command and Control and Nuclear Research targets to be wiped out in the first 24 hours, with 90% being wiped out by 36 and 95% by 48. It will be like the Desert Storm air campaign on meth, crack cocaine and a caffine IV drip.

There are four key weaknesses, however: The Iranian ballistic missile threat, the Iranian Persian Gulf threat, the Iranian Armor threat and the Hezbollah terrorist threat.


The first one may actually be the hardest to deal with... We've improved our anti-missile abilities a great deal since Desert Storm... But the Iranians have many, many more missiles than Saddam did... Not to mention better missiles to start with. The Iranians exaggerate their abilities, but it's still a serious concern. I would expect to see warheads falling in Iraq if an air war starts... Possibly Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, etc... Anything in their range not allied with them would be a potential "lash out" target. Doubtlessly many would be launched at Israel but I doubt too many of those would actually make it (longer flight time = better chance to intercept)... The Israelis will be willing to stand down and suck it up as long as the warheads are conventional and the US doesn't back down from the air campaign... If any of those warheads happens to be NBC, however, G-d only knows what will happen.


The Iranian threat to the Persian gulf is probably the second most serious... They have a ridiculous number of anti-ship weapons stockpiled along the coast.... They could shut down Persian Gulf traffic for a while... Not a good thing to see. We have two choices... Seal the gulf, keep our ships out of range and let the Air Force saturation bomb the living shit out of the Iranian coast and islands, or get brave (and possibly stupid) and use our AGIES ships and carrier air groups as a picket force to hopefully knock any Iranian ASMs out of the air before they can hit anything while the USN fighters and USAF saturation bomb the coast to destroy missile sites... This might keep the gulf and, especially, straight open... It might also lose us a few ships if things don't go perfectly.


The Iranian Armor threat is less likely, but none the less worth concern... The Iranian tank corps isn't nearly as big as that of Iraq was in 1991... But in my opinion it is much better trained and has considerably better morale/discipline, especially the Revolutionary Guard portions of it... Also, their tanks are a little better than the crap the Iraqis had (well, some of it, anyway). There is a possibility the Iranians could try to make an armored push into Iraq. Iran is a much bigger target than Iraq ever was... It will take a lot more attention from our airforce to wipe out its CNC, AD Ballistic Missile and Offensive Air abilities, and those are things we will need to do quickly... We won't have nearly as many aircraft left over to spend time tank-plinking like we did in 1991... It's possible that there could be enough of an Iranian army left to actually attempt such an operation.

Assuming we aren't complete morons, they'll die.

Lots of them.


To put it simply... "The army can take care of itself"... Any tanks trying to cross into Iraq would get slaughtered without the Air Forces help, if need be, lack of American Armor in Iraq be damned.

But the Iranians might not know that.



As for the terrorist threat... The one is pretty obvious. Expect the shit to fly in Iraq... IEDs and terrorist ambushes on an op tempo like never before... Think "Tet Offensive" of the Iraq war.

And like the Tet Offensive, it won't actually accomplish much.

But it'll be distracting and hell and look good in the newspapers.


Also expect Hezbollah to start its shit from Lebanon/The Palistinian squated areas, again.

Also, terrorist attacks (probably scattered, random small ones) throughout the United States and Europe are possible.


But in a weeks time, we could destroy every sign of industrialized life in Iran. They wouldn't be a threat to anyone for decades, assuming we prevent, say, Russia from rebuilding them.
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Old 09-27-2007
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Default Re: Silence In Syria, Panic In Iran

It gets a lot better, too...


Israel may have ( ) inserted commando teams (among other things) into Syria during the course of this operation and "extracted" certain key persons of interest before blowning things to hell... Such as Syrian, Iranian, North Korean and Russian offcials... Along with a bunch of documents and computers, it seems.

The whereabouts of these persons is now unknown... Hardy harr harr.


Turkey seems to have suddenly taken a dislike to their Syrian neighbors as well... Wonder why.




Also, the lasting results of the raid are now starting to turn up... Try "chemical contamination" and "uninhabitable" for a few sites that were hit (and no, the Israelis didn't cause the contamination, the targets did).


I hear the Israelis put a few more suprises behind the Syrian lines while they were at it.



You know, now and then, things actually seem to actually go right.

This is actually cooler than all those munition trains in North Korea and Iran that we have blown up over the last few years... You know, the ones that registered on the richter scale?


Here comes the sun folks, be ready to watch the first hot battles of WWIV start.
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Last edited by UZI4U : 09-27-2007 at 11:21 AM.
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Old 09-27-2007
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Default Re: Silence In Syria, Panic In Iran

Man, when are people going to learn? Don't fuck with Israel!
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